Virginia Beach, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

697
FXUS61 KAKQ 130100
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
900 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure offshore gradually drifts south through the week,
allowing for seasonably warm and humid conditions to continue.
Daily chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms
continue through the week with lower chances this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 900 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Mild tonight with isolated showers possible south.

This evening, ~1022 mb high pressure remains situated offshore
and an upper trough across the upper Midwest. Showers/storms
have diminished from earlier this afternoon, with only a few
isolated showers remaining. CAMs continue to hint at possibility
for additional showers late tonight/early Wednesday AM
(especially south). Otherwise, skies will range from partly to
mostly cloudy. Patchy fog/low stratus will be possible in spots
as we approach sunrise. Lows dip into the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Temperatures and humidity increase slightly Wednesday/Thursday,
  but max heat indices generally remain at or below 100F.

- Daily chances for scattered showers and storms continue. Locally
  heavy rainfall is possible.

The ridge aloft continues to break down/become suppressed to the S
on Wed while a shortwave near the base of the larger upper trough is
progged to track from western NC through srn VA/NE NC during the
day/evening. Seasonably hot and humid wx is expected w/ highs once
again in the mid-upper 80s (some locations may approach 90F). With
the shortwave tracking through the area, more widespread clouds and
storm coverage is expected Wed aftn/evening across most of the area.
Again, there is a threat for localized flooding (WPC Marginal Risk
for the entire area) with a very low but nonzero chc for a damaging
wind gust or two. Diurnal weakening is expected Wed night with
warm/humid wx continuing (lows in the lower 70s). A (very) weak
front (mainly a wind shift) approaches from the north on
Thursday...which will increase surface convergence and allow for
another round of isolated-scattered aftn/evening tstms with the
typical summertime threats for highly localized flooding/damaging
wind gusts. Slightly warmer on Thu with highs into the upper 80s to
around 90F. Max heat indices should still remain aob 100F...so no
heat headlines are anticipated. Similar conditions are expected on
Friday but with lower coverage of showers and storms during the
afternoon/evening as low level flow becomes N or NE behind the weak
boundary and heights increase aloft. Dew points are forecast to fall
off by a degree or two as well so not expecting any heat headlines
with temps mainly in the upper 80s. Lows Friday night fall into the
upper 60s to around 70 degrees as somewhat drier air filters into
the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Seasonably warm weather continues through the weekend and into
  early next week.

- Chance for diurnal showers and a few storms continues Saturday
  with little to no convection expected Sun-Mon.

Upper ridging builds back over the eastern CONUS through the
weekend, while the low-level flow becomes onshore. Meanwhile, sfc
high pressure shifts from New England to off the Mid-Atlantic coast.
This will allow for decreasing shower/tstm chances from Sat-Mon.
Seasonably warm conditions will continue with highs in the upper 80s
to lower 90s each day and lows in the mid/upper 60s to lower 70s.
Model/ensemble consensus shows TC Erin tracking to a position well
off the FL coast by the end of the period (Tues). Local impacts from
Erin (direct or indirect) would be after Day 7. Of course, the
future track is highly uncertain this far out but the guidance
consensus favors a recurving storm well offshore with potential wave
and rip current impacts to the local area.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 750 PM EDT Tuesday...

Convection has generally tapered off this evening, with just a
few remaining, widely isolated showers. An isolated shower will
be possible at ORF and ECG at any point through the night, but
overall confidence is too low to include in the forecast. MVFR
to IFR stratus develops after 06z, with the highest coverage
between ~09 and 12z. The best chances for IFR stratus will be at
RIC, PHF, and SBY. SBY may also see a period of patchy fog after
06z, continuing until shortly after sunrise. Otherwise, all
sites return to VFR later Wednesday morning, though SBY may see
lingering MVFR CIGs through late morning. Afternoon-evening
scattered showers and storms develop again tomorrow, with the
highest chances currently at ECG, where a PROB30 group was
introduced.

Outlook: Daily chances for isolated to scattered showers and
storms continue through the week. MVFR CIGs will continue to be
possible through the week with potentially IFR CIGs and/or VIS
(due to fog) possible near sunrise.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Generally benign marine conditions are expected through the week.

- Winds and seas become elevated by the middle of next week with
  SCA conditions possible.

High pressure was centered off the East Coast this afternoon. This
high gradually drifts south through the week, allowing for benign
marine conditions to continue. Winds this afternoon were generally S
5-10 kt. Winds become southwest overnight, increasing to 10-15 kt
late Wed afternoon into Wed night. Winds become light (~5 kt) Thu,
eventually becoming NE 5-10 kt Fri behind a weak cold front. Winds
remain generally onshore through early next week. The next chance
for elevated winds, waves, and seas begins Tue into the middle of
next week as elevated onshore winds increase to potentially SCA
criteria. Will note that forecast uncertainty is high for the middle
of next week due to uncertainties with the track and intensity of
Tropical Storm Erin. As such, we will continue to monitor the system
as it is still over a week away from any potential impacts.

Waves and seas were 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft respectively this afternoon.
Waves and seas remain low through Sun. Seas begin to build next week
with SCA conditions possible by Tue (4-5 ft seas). Given 2 ft
nearshore waves and S/SW surface winds Wed and Thu, a Low Rip Risk
is expected across all area beaches.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERI/RHR
NEAR TERM...AJB/RMM
SHORT TERM...ERI/RHR
LONG TERM...ERI/RHR
AVIATION...AJB/RMM
MARINE...RMM